ABSTRACT
This review compares the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90 day forecast for the period December 2008 through February 2009 with the observed temperature and precipitation conditions for the same period.

DATA
The archived forecasts of the 3-month winter season (December 2009 through February 2009) were downloaded from CPC. (Fig. 1 and 2)  The observed temperature and precipitation data for the same period were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center. (Fig. 3 and 4) 

Fig. 1 CPC Winter (DJF 2008-09) Seasonal Temperature Forecast	Fig. 2 CPC Winter (DJF 2008-09) Seasonal Precipitation Forecast

Fig. 3 Observed Winter (DJF 2008-09) Seasonal Temperatures	Fig. 4 Observed Winter (DJF 2008-09) Seasonal Precipitation

ANALYSIS

CPC seasonal forecasts are in the form of the probability of the respective temperature or precipitation being above or below; or if there are equal chances of either.   However, the common interpretation is that areas with an above normal probability will have an above normal value of either temperature or precipitation.

Using that interpretation, the above normal temperature forecast for Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana and eastern Colorado verified well.  At the same time the northeast extension of the above normal area had the opposite anomaly as the observed below normal temperatures across Iowa, Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.  The forecast also appears to have missed the very cool observed anomalies in the Pacific Northwest.

The precipitation forecast of below normal anomalies seems to have verified well across the southern tier of states including Arizona, New Mexico, southern Texas,  Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South and North Carolina, and into Virginia.  Conversely, the above normal forecast anomaly over Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and northern Arkansas missed with observed below normal precipitation.  The forecast also did not reflect the strong negative precipitation anomaly in the Pacific Coast states of California, and western Washington and Oregon.