NOAA 2012 Precipitation and
Temperature Outlooks in Review


Winter
December-January-February 2011-2012

and
and
Summer
June-July-August 2012

Jan NullCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
 

ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF) 2011-2012 and the summer period of June-August with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same periods.


DATA SOURCES
The 90-day outlooks were retreived from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
Winter: 
The CPC precipitation forecast for DJF 2011-12 did a relatively poor job of capturing very dry conditons in the West and below normal rainfall in Texas.  Only the Gulf Coast states and the Carolinas into Virginia forecast of below normal rainfall came close to verifying.  Wintertime temperatures in the southeast quadrant of the nation were generally above normal as forecast while the remainder of the US was poorly depicted.
Summer:  The CPC summertime precipitation forecasts were for EC (Equal Chances of below, normal or above normal) and missed the very dry signature (i.e., drought!) in the nation's midsection, while also being off target along the wet Gulf Coast and Florida.  The above normal forecast temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the country occured except in the Southeast where they were closer to normal.  The EC forecast for the northern third of the nation was out of synch with the above normal observed temperatures from the northern Rockies to New England.

click graphics to enlarge

Winter Preciptation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2011-2012 Observed DJF 2011-2012 Precipitation Anomalies
Winter Temperature
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2011-2012 Observed DJF 2011-2012 Temperature Anomalies

Summer Preciptation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook JJA 2012 Observed JJA 2012 Precipitation Anomalies
Summer Preciptation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook JJA 2012 Observed JJA 2012 Temperature Anomalies

CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php


Also see the review of the Farmer's Almanac 2012 seasonal forecasts.


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