CPC Winter 2013-14 Seasonal and Monthly
Precipitation and Temperature
Outlooks in Review


December-January-February 2013-2014

and
Jan Null, CCM, CM
Golden Gate Weather Services
   

ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF) 2013-2014 with the actual observed conditons.


ANALYSIS
Winter Precipitation:
 The CPC Winter precipitation forecast for DJF 2013-14 did poorly at capturing the well below normal (i.e., < 75%) for the West Coast and Great Basin and the Plains. Likewise the well above normal (> 125%) precipitation that occurred over much of the eastern third of the nation was missed, especially in the southeast where below normal was forcast and above normal precipitation occurred!  The forecast did do a relatively good job of capturing above normal precipitation in the northern Rockies and the below normal precipitation that occurred in Arizona, New Mexico and extreme western Texas.

Winter Temperature: With the exception of the northern Rockies, the CPC winter temperature forecast did a very poor job of depicting the extremely cold temperatures experienced over the east two-thirds of the country.  This was especially true in New England, Texas and lower Mississippi Valley where the outlook was actually for above normal temperatures.  The above normal temperatures that occured through the winter for California and the Great Basin were also missed.  Only the above normal temperatures in Arizona and New Mexico were close to a hit.

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:  Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.


Winter 2013-2014 Preciptation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2013-2014 Observed DJF 2013-2014 Precipitation % Normal
Winter 2013-2104 Temperature
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2013-2014 Observed DJF 2013-2014 Temperature Anomalies


December 2013 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook December 2013 Observed December 2013 Precipitation % Normal
December 2013 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook December 2013 Observed December 2013 Temperature Anomalies

January 2014 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook January 2014 Observed January 2014 Precipitation % Normal
January 2014 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook January 2014 Observed January 2014 Temperature Anomalies

February 2014 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook February 2014 Observed February 2014 Precipitation % Normal
February 2014 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook February 2014 Observed February 2014 Temperature Anomalies


DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the High Plains Regional Climate Center's Climate Summary Maps.

CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php


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