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ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF)
2014-2015 with the actual observed conditons.
ANALYSIS
Winter
Precipitation:
The CPC Winter precipitation forecast for DJF
2014-15 did poorly at capturing the negative precipitation anomalies for
California and Oregon. It did capture the negative anomalies in
Washington and the Midwest. The above normal precipitation
forecast along the southern tier of states only verified in a few places
and was out of phase along much of the Gulf Coast and southern Florida.
Winter Temperature: For the second year in a row the
winter temperature outlook for most of New England was a complete fail.
Above normal temperarures were forecast for most of West and verified
well west of the Rockies but not in the Rockies and the western Plains.
The below normal forecast for most of the Southeast verified, but the
remainder of the eastern half of the country was not well captured.
Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:
Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.
| Winter 2014-2015
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2014-2015 |
Observed
DJF 2014-2015 Precipitation Anomalies |
 |
 |
| Winter 2014-2015 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2014-2015 |
Observed
DJF 2014-2015 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
December 2014
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook December 2014 |
Observed
December 2014 Precipitation % Normal |
 |
 |
| December 2014
Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook December 2014 |
Observed
December 2014 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
January 2015 Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook January 2015 |
Observed
January 2015 Precipitation % Normal |
 |
 |
| January 2015 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook January 2015 |
Observed
January 2015 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
February 2015
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook February 2015 |
Observed
February 2015 Precipitation % Normal |
 |
 |
| February 2015 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook February 2015 |
Observed
February 2015 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
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DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
High Plains Regional
Climate Center's Climate Summary Maps.
CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications
can be found at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php
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