CPC Winter 2015-16 Seasonal and Monthly
Precipitation and Temperature
Outlooks in Review


December-January-February 2015-2016

and
Jan Null, CCM, CM
Golden Gate Weather Services
 

ABSTRACT
Comparison of last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF) 2015-2016 with the actual observed conditons.


ANALYSIS
Winter Precipitation:
 The CPC Winter Precipitation Outlook DJF 2015-16 did poorly at capturing the record precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and the negative precipitation anomalies for the southern half of California. Likewise, the Great lakes and Midwest were out of phase with the forecast. It did capture the positive anomalies across the Southeats and Atlantic Seaboard.

Winter Temperature: The CPC Winter Temperature Outlook was out of phase with the below normal temperatures from Texas across teh Gulf Coast, but pretty much hit everywhere else that was above normal.

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:  Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.


Winter 2015-2016 Precipitation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2015-2016 Observed DJF 2015-2016 Precipitation Anomalies
Winter 2015-2016 Temperature
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2015-2016 Observed DJF 2015-2016 Temperature Anomalies


December 2015 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook December 2015 Observed December 2015 Precipitation Anomaly
December 2015 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook December 2015 Observed December 2015 Temperature Anomalies

January 2016 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook January 2016 Observed January 2016 Precipitation Anomlies
 
January 2016 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook January 2016 Observed January 2016 Temperature Anomalies
 

February 2016 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook February 2016 Observed February 2016 Precipitation Anomalies
 
February 2016 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook February 2016 Observed February 2016 Temperature Anomalies


DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from NOAA ESRL Climate Division Data.

CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php


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