CPC Winter 2016-17 Seasonal and Monthly
Precipitation and Temperature
Outlooks in Review


December-January-February 2016-2017

and
Jan Null, CCM, CM
Golden Gate Weather Services
 

ABSTRACT
Comparison of last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF) 2016-2017 with the actual observed conditons.


ANALYSIS
Winter Precipitation:
 The CPC Winter Precipitation Outlook DJF 2016-17 did poorly in the West, missing the near-record precipitation across most of California and the very dry conditons in the Pacific Northwest, as well as the mostly above normal pattern across the Great Basin, Southwest and most of Texas. Conversely it was good across the north from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Most of the southeastern quadrant of the country and the Northeast was a mixed bag.

Winter Temperature: The CPC Winter Temperature Outlook was out of phase in the cool West and warm northeastern quadrant of the nation, while the very warm southern half was forecast well.

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:  Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.


Winter 2016-2017 Precipitation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2016-2017 Observed DJF 2016-2017 Precipitation Anomalies
   
Winter 2016-2017 Temperature
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2016-2017 Observed DJF 2016-2017 Temperature Anomalies
   
  * "Good": Same category (i.e., dry forecast, precip < normal).
* "Not Good": Opposite category (i..e, cold forecast, temp > normal).
* "Mixed": One category off (i.e., wet forecast, normal observed).


December 2016 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook December 2016 Observed December 2016 Precipitation Anomaly
   
December 2016 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook December 2016 Observed December 2016 Temperature Anomalies
   

January 2017 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook January 2017 Observed January 2017 Precipitation Anomlies
   
January 2017 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook January 2017 Observed January 2017 Temperature Anomalies
   

February 2017 Precipitation
NOAA CPC Precipitation Outlook February 2017 Observed February 2017 Precipitation Anomalies
 
February 2017 Temperature
NOAA CPC Temperature Outlook February 2017 Observed February 2017 Temperature Anomalies
   


DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from NOAA ESRL Climate Division Data.

CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php


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