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ABSTRACT
Comparison of last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF)
2016-2017 with the actual observed conditons.
ANALYSIS
Winter
Precipitation:
The CPC Winter Precipitation Outlook DJF
2016-17 did poorly in the West, missing the near-record precipitation
across most of California and the very dry conditons in the Pacific
Northwest, as well as the mostly above normal pattern across the Great
Basin, Southwest and most of Texas. Conversely it was good across the
north from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Most of the
southeastern quadrant of the country and the Northeast was a mixed bag.
Winter Temperature: The CPC Winter Temperature Outlook
was out of phase in the cool West and warm northeastern quadrant of the
nation, while the very warm southern half was forecast well.
Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:
Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.
| Winter 2016-2017
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2016-2017 |
Observed
DJF 2016-2017 Precipitation Anomalies |
 |
 |
| Winter 2016-2017 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2016-2017 |
Observed
DJF 2016-2017 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
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* "Good": Same category (i.e., dry
forecast, precip < normal).
* "Not Good": Opposite category
(i..e, cold forecast, temp > normal).
* "Mixed": One category off (i.e.,
wet forecast, normal observed). |
December 2016
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook December 2016 |
Observed
December 2016 Precipitation Anomaly |
 |
 |
| December 2016
Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook December 2016 |
Observed
December 2016 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
January 2017 Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook January 2017 |
Observed
January 2017 Precipitation Anomlies |
 |
 |
| January 2017 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook January 2017 |
Observed
January 2017 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
February 2017
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook February 2017 |
Observed
February 2017 Precipitation Anomalies |
 |
 |
| February 2017 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook February 2017 |
Observed
February 2017 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation
data were downloaded from
NOAA ESRL
Climate Division Data.
CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications
can be found at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php
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