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ABSTRACT
Comparison of last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF)
2017-2018 with the actual observed conditons.
ANALYSIS
Winter
Precipitation:
The CPC Winter Precipitation Outlook DJF
2017-18 did better than in several of the recent winters, partly because
the overall pattern ended up close to a "typical" La Niña. and the poorly in the West, missing the near-record precipitation
across most of California and the very dry conditons in the Pacific
Northwest, as well as the mostly above normal pattern across the Great
Basin, Southwest and most of Texas. Conversely it was good across the
north from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. Most of the
southeastern quadrant of the country and the Northeast was a mixed bag.
Winter Temperature: The CPC Winter Temperature Outlook
was out of phase in the cool West and warm northeastern quadrant of the
nation, while the very warm southern half was forecast well.
Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:
Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.
| Winter 2017-2018
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2017-2018 |
Observed
DJF 2017-2018 Precipitation Anomalies |
 |
 |
| Winter 2017-2018 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2017-2018 |
Observed
DJF 2017-2018 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
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* "Good": Same category (i.e., dry
forecast, precip < normal).
* "Not Good": Opposite category
(i..e, cold forecast, temp > normal).
* "Mixed": One category off (i.e.,
wet forecast, normal observed). |
December 2017
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook December 2017 |
Observed
December 2017 Precipitation Anomaly |
 |
 |
| December 2017
Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook December 2017 |
Observed
December 2017 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
January 2018 Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook January 2018 |
Observed
January 2018 Precipitation Anomlies |
 |
 |
| January 2018 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook January 2018 |
Observed
January 2018 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
February 2018
Precipitation |
| NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook February 2018 |
Observed
February 2018 Precipitation Anomalies |
 |
 |
| February 2018 Temperature |
| NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook February 2018 |
Observed
February 2018 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation
data were downloaded from
NOAA ESRL
Climate Division Data.
CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications
can be found at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php
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