Below are comparisons of
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) 90-day "Winter Outlook" for precipitation and temperature for the period of December-February (DJF)
2018-2019 and the observed conditions. Additionally, other "winter
forecasts/outlooks from a variety of online sources are included
for the reader's review.
I have foregone painful
rating of the "accuracy" of the forecasts as each is relative to
the individual user. However, I do see significant errors for
large parts of the country in every forecast, highlighting the
need for users to seriously consider if seasonal forecasts
are indeed "skillful" and have "value".
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