REVIEW of
Winter 2018-2019 Seasonal
Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks


December-January-February 2018-2019

and
Jan Null, CCM, CM
Golden Gate Weather Services

Below are comparisons of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90-day "Winter Outlook" for precipitation and temperature for the period of December-February (DJF) 2018-2019 and the observed conditions.  Additionally, other "winter forecasts/outlooks from a variety of online sources are included for the reader's review.

I have foregone painful rating of the "accuracy" of the forecasts as each is relative to the individual user. However, I do see significant errors for large parts of the country in every forecast, highlighting the need for users to seriously consider if seasonal  forecasts are indeed "skillful" and have "value".


NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Precipitation
NOAA CPC 90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2018-2019   Observed DJF 2018-2019 Precipitation Anomalies
     
NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Temperature
NOAA CPC 90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2018-2019 Observed DJF 2018-2019 Temperature Anomalies
   

Source: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us


Other Winter Outlooks for 2018-2019
ACCUWEATHER FARMER'S ALMANAC

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2019-winter-forecast 
FIRSTHAND WEATHER OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

https://www.almanac.com/content/2019-winter-weather-forecast
WEATHERWORKS - PRECIPITATION WEATHERWORKS TEMPERATURE

https://www.weatherworksinc.com/2018-2019-winter-forecast

WEATHER CHANNEL TEMPERATURE  

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-11-14-late-november-winter-temperature-outlook-the-weather-company
 

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