California El Nino and La Nina Precipitation Climatology
La Niña and  California Precipitation
Jan Null, CCM

August 2024


This is a catalog of California precipitation anomalies for previous la Niña events based upon their strength and the 10 state hydrologic regions.  It has the average for all events, weak events, moderate events, strong and very strong events and the wide range of the individual seasons that went into making up each of the averages.

It cannot be stressed strongly enough that this is a climatological analysis and NOT a forecasting tool.  This is especially true for the averages of different strength events which are made up of what are a very broad range of conditions; some that are decidedly atypical.

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is used to identify El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive months at or above the +0.5° anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5° to 0.9° SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0° to 1.4°), Strong (1.5° to 1.9°) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0°) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be weak, moderate, strong or very strong it much have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 months.

La Niña Events:
     Weak: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23
     Moderate: 1955-56, 1970-71, 1995-96, 2011-12, 2020-21, 2021-2022
     Strong: 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11
    

 ALL La Niña Events
Table 1.  All La Niña Events - Average Percent of Normal Seasonal Precipitation (25 events)
ENSO Type N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
All La NIña 102% 98% 103% 95% 99% 91% 95% 89% 84% 80% 97%
Weak La NIña 101% 100% 108% 100% 107% 97% 102% 102% 90% 95% 101%
Moderate La NIña 102% 93% 101% 92% 89% 81% 83% 65% 71% 52% 90%
Strong La NIña 105% 98% 97% 91% 95% 90% 94% 86% 84% 77% 96%
All La NIña Table 2.  All La Niña - Years by Percent of Normal Categories (25 events)
% of Normal N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
<80% 7 10 6 10 10 10 9 12 13 15 10
80-100% 6 3 6 6 4 5 8 7 9 5 5
100-120% 4 5 6 2 5 7 3 2 0 2 4
120-140% 5 5 3 5 3 1 2 1 1 1 5
>140% 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 1
Average - ALL La Niña
ONI -0.5
1954-55 1955-56 1964-65 1970-71
       
1971-72 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76
       
1983-84 1984-85 1988-89 1995-96
       
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2005-06
       
2007-08 2008-09 2010-11 2011-12
     
2016-17 2017-18 2020-21 2021-2022
       
2022-23      
       


WEAK La Niña Events
Weak La NIña Table 3.  Weak La Niña - Years by Percent of Normal Categories (12 events)
% of Normal N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
<80% 4 5 2 5 4 5 3 3 5 5 5
80-100% 2 2 4 3 2 2 5 4 5 3 2
100-120% 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 0 1 2
120-140% 3 1 2 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 2
>140% 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1
Average - WEAK El Niño
ONI -0.5 to -0.9
1954-55 1964-65 1971-72 1974-75
       
1983-84 1984-85 2000-01 2005-06
       
2008-09 2016-17 2017-18 2022-23 
       


MODERATE La Niña Events
Moderate La NIña Table 4.  Moderate La Niña - Years by Percent of Normal Categories (6 events)
% of Normal N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
<80% 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 4 6 3
80-100% 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 0 0
100-120% 0 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 2
120-140% 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
>140% 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average - MODERATE El Niño
ONI -1.0 to 1.5
1955-56 1970-71 1995-96 2011-12
       
2020-21 2021-2022    
       


STRONG La Niña Events
Strong La NIña Table 5.  Strong La Niña - Years by Percent of Normal Categories (7 events)
% of Normal N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
<80% 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 2
80-100% 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3
100-120% 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 0
120-140% 0 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
>140% 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
Average - STRONG El Niño
ONI -1.5 TO -2.0
1973-74 1975-76 1988-89 1998-99
       
1999-00 2007-08 2010-11  
       


Table 6. Percent of Normal (1991-2020) California Rainfall for All ENSO Types
  Normal 52.80 36.33 19.45 25.28 27.45 19.96 15.86 6.94 17.39 5.11 23.61
ENSO Type Rain Season N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
  1950 - 1951 110% 109% 115% 105% 118% 73% 94% 66% 54% 49% 106%
Mod. El Niño 1951 - 1952 118% 126% 131% 130% 129% 136% 136% 138% 161% 151% 134%
Weak El Niño 1952 - 1953 115% 101% 97% 92% 82% 75% 83% 67% 70% 74% 100%
Weak El Niño 1953 - 1954 106% 90% 79% 74% 81% 76% 83% 75% 90% 72% 94%
Weak La Niña 1954 - 1955 71% 67% 65% 70% 75% 78% 79% 67% 73% 65% 74%
Mod. La Niña 1955 - 1956 138% 132% 139% 130% 130% 109% 117% 79% 80% 62% 130%
  1956 - 1957 89% 82% 89% 73% 80% 71% 78% 67% 77% 52% 85%
Stg. El Niño 1957 - 1958 146% 140% 126% 151% 131% 159% 142% 121% 156% 127% 147%
Weak El Niño 1958 - 1959 80% 69% 71% 56% 61% 62% 53% 56% 50% 52% 70%
  1959 - 1960 87% 80% 70% 74% 74% 70% 68% 64% 68% 95% 82%
  1960 - 1961 97% 78% 67% 64% 61% 53% 58% 55% 37% 47% 77%
  1961 - 1962 80% 85% 95% 81% 93% 106% 106% 98% 111% 74% 93%
  1962 - 1963 115% 119% 132% 120% 109% 102% 96% 69% 53% 42% 112%
Mod. El Niño 1963 - 1964 80% 67% 81% 61% 69% 62% 72% 75% 76% 90% 76%
Weak La Niña 1964 - 1965 116% 110% 118% 101% 116% 94% 103% 86% 79% 78% 112%
Stg. El Niño 1965 - 1966 88% 73% 78% 73% 73% 78% 73% 104% 117% 116% 86%
  1966 - 1967 107% 120% 131% 134% 133% 133% 142% 102% 130% 72% 124%
  1967 - 1968 78% 75% 78% 70% 65% 61% 66% 84% 77% 97% 78%
Mod. El Niño 1968 - 1969 120% 127% 142% 126% 153% 168% 180% 150% 174% 104% 143%
Weak El Niño 1969 - 1970 110% 110% 111% 99% 96% 74% 77% 57% 59% 73% 102%
Mod. La Niña 1970 - 1971 118% 103% 116% 92% 87% 78% 82% 72% 77% 55% 103%
Weak La Niña 1971 - 1972 95% 68% 79% 51% 64% 48% 52% 57% 51% 58% 75%
Stg. El Niño 1972 - 1973 90% 107% 97% 135% 111% 139% 129% 118% 120% 111% 112%
Stg. La Niña 1973 - 1974 150% 134% 110% 122% 109% 107% 98% 69% 78% 57% 128%
Weak La Niña 1974 - 1975 100% 95% 98% 92% 101% 95% 91% 84% 86% 63% 99%
Stg. La Niña 1975 - 1976 68% 49% 57% 39% 49% 43% 56% 67% 61% 77% 60%
Weak El Niño 1976 - 1977 41% 43% 69% 46% 47% 66% 63% 102% 84% 112% 56%
Weak El Niño 1977 - 1978 128% 133% 120% 134% 140% 169% 170% 190% 212% 199% 151%
  1978 - 1979 73% 80% 80% 83% 97% 97% 101% 116% 129% 143% 92%
Weak El Niño 1979 - 1980 107% 114% 130% 120% 121% 123% 127% 152% 178% 192% 128%
  1980 - 1981 74% 74% 77% 65% 69% 75% 73% 73% 60% 65% 75%
  1981 - 1982 143% 145% 146% 157% 149% 118% 124% 110% 103% 91% 143%
V. Stg. El Niño 1982 - 1983 155% 163% 159% 187% 180% 196% 186% 190% 195% 187% 177%
Weak La Niña 1983 - 1984 117% 108% 118% 93% 104% 74% 88% 98% 70% 134% 110%
Weak La Niña 1984 - 1985 78% 70% 80% 79% 73% 70% 80% 128% 83% 146% 83%
  1985 - 1986 111% 126% 140% 131% 131% 119% 130% 110% 117% 110% 127%
Mod. El Niño 1986 - 1987 78% 64% 66% 58% 58% 61% 67% 81% 62% 87% 72%
Stg. El Niño 1987 - 1988 78% 72% 62% 67% 63% 75% 79% 101% 95% 116% 80%
Stg. La Niña 1988 - 1989 89% 86% 95% 66% 71% 54% 71% 64% 60% 62% 83%
  1989 - 1990 74% 76% 76% 64% 73% 54% 63% 50% 56% 45% 73%
  1990 - 1991 63% 67% 78% 66% 72% 87% 81% 94% 95% 113% 76%
Stg. El Niño 1991 - 1992 67% 71% 62% 81% 71% 98% 77% 132% 123% 164% 83%
  1992 - 1993 118% 125% 123% 123% 131% 145% 136% 160% 206% 213% 139%
  1993 - 1994 62% 63% 64% 65% 60% 70% 71% 53% 73% 65% 66%
Mod. El Niño 1994 - 1995 139% 161% 162% 150% 156% 176% 161% 145% 174% 137% 160%
Mod. La Niña 1995 - 1996 119% 115% 124% 119% 109% 97% 98% 67% 71% 32% 112%
  1996 - 1997 119% 117% 132% 104% 123% 107% 120% 79% 86% 49% 118%
V. Stg. El Niño 1997 - 1998 145% 158% 128% 173% 152% 203% 179% 180% 198% 169% 166%
Stg. La Niña 1998 - 1999 111% 96% 109% 90% 89% 80% 79% 74% 54% 60% 98%
Stg. La Niña 1999 - 2000 93% 97% 86% 98% 100% 100% 90% 70% 69% 54% 96%
Weak La Niña 2000 - 2001 58% 65% 54% 72% 75% 103% 81% 89% 89% 82% 73%
  2001 - 2002 93% 86% 76% 89% 82% 63% 76% 41% 32% 25% 82%
Mod. El Niño 2002 - 2003 111% 104% 90% 103% 89% 96% 94% 92% 105% 76% 106%
  2003 - 2004 92% 90% 82% 81% 73% 66% 71% 87% 60% 93% 88%
Weak El Niño 2004 - 2005 98% 108% 108% 122% 130% 151% 132% 187% 209% 212% 129%
Weak La Niña 2005 - 2006 135% 138% 135% 134% 129% 111% 119% 99% 86% 72% 132%
Weak El Niño 2006 - 2007 78% 61% 57% 56% 56% 40% 48% 35% 29% 30% 62%
Stg. La Niña 2007 - 2008 83% 70% 73% 74% 71% 83% 72% 81% 88% 82% 80%
Weak La Niña 2008 - 2009 75% 79% 81% 76% 83% 64% 71% 74% 66% 83% 80%
Mod. El Niño 2009 - 2010 102% 95% 90% 107% 103% 111% 108% 99% 109% 117% 106%
Stg. La Niña 2010 - 2011 115% 124% 141% 118% 145% 130% 147% 129% 136% 96% 132%
Mod. La Niña 2011 - 2012 87% 71% 62% 67% 62% 61% 65% 52% 64% 61% 75%
  2012 - 2013 83% 78% 83% 71% 67% 54% 47% 53% 48% 78% 75%
  2013 - 2014 57% 56% 65% 53% 50% 39% 43% 54% 45% 63% 56%
Weak El Niño 2014 - 2015 82% 74% 84% 79% 57% 59% 51% 65% 58% 86% 75%
V. Stg. El Niño 2015 - 2016 112% 104% 121% 95% 103% 82% 98% 96% 72% 74% 107%
Weak La Niña 2016 - 2017 150% 156% 185% 159% 168% 138% 146% 134% 115% 115% 158%
Weak La Niña 2017 - 2018 75% 76% 108% 69% 77% 61% 65% 60% 43% 37% 74%
Weak El Niño 2018 - 2019 113% 130% 132% 134% 127% 127% 132% 141% 139% 140% 125%
2019 - 2020 64% 63% 75% 57% 66% 82% 78% 100% 112% 147% 72%
Mod. La Niña 2020 - 2021 57% 44% 59% 39% 50% 51% 44% 31% 39% 25% 48%
Mod. La Niña 2021 - 2022 75% 76% 100% 82% 72% 69% 63% 67% 70% 54% 73%
Weak La Niña 2022 2023 106% 127% 157% 155% 169% 183% 184% 161% 177% 119% 138%
Stg. El Niño 2023 2024 110% 96% 92% 102% 94% 123% 103% 138% 139% 122% 106%
ENSO Type Rain Season N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA

     
Table 7. Percent of Normal (1991-2020) California Rainfall - Sorted by ENSO Type
  Normal 52.66 36.01 19.32 25.03 27.22 19.70 15.64 6.77 17.04 4.95 23.61
ENSO Type Rain Season N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
Weak El Niño 1952 - 1953 119% 105% 98% 96% 86% 79% 89% 72% 74% 79% 100%
Weak El Niño 1953 - 1954 110% 93% 80% 77% 85% 80% 88% 80% 95% 77% 94%
Weak El Niño 1958 - 1959 83% 71% 72% 59% 64% 65% 57% 60% 53% 56% 70%
Weak El Niño 1969 - 1970 114% 114% 113% 104% 100% 77% 82% 61% 63% 78% 102%
Weak El Niño 1976 - 1977 43% 44% 70% 48% 49% 69% 67% 109% 89% 121% 56%
Weak El Niño 1977 - 1978 132% 138% 121% 140% 147% 176% 180% 204% 224% 214% 151%
Weak El Niño 1979 - 1980 111% 119% 131% 126% 127% 128% 135% 163% 188% 206% 128%
Weak El Niño 2004 - 2005 102% 112% 109% 127% 136% 157% 141% 201% 221% 227% 129%
Weak El Niño 2006 - 2007 81% 63% 58% 59% 59% 42% 51% 37% 30% 32% 62%
Weak El Niño 2014 - 2015 85% 77% 85% 83% 59% 62% 54% 70% 61% 92% 75%
Weak El Niño 2018 - 2019 113% 129% 131% 133% 127% 126% 130% 138% 136% 136% 125%
                             
Mod. El Niño 1951 - 1952 122% 130% 132% 135% 135% 142% 145% 148% 170% 162% 134%
Mod. El Niño 1963 - 1964 83% 70% 82% 64% 73% 64% 77% 80% 81% 97% 76%
Mod. El Niño 1968 - 1969 125% 132% 144% 132% 160% 176% 191% 161% 184% 112% 143%
Mod. El Niño 1986 - 1987 81% 67% 67% 60% 61% 63% 71% 86% 65% 94% 72%
Mod. El Niño 1994 - 1995 144% 167% 164% 157% 163% 184% 172% 156% 184% 148% 160%
Mod. El Niño 2002 - 2003 116% 108% 91% 107% 93% 100% 100% 99% 111% 82% 106%
Mod. El Niño 2009 - 2010 106% 99% 91% 112% 108% 116% 115% 106% 115% 125% 106%
           
Stg. El Niño 1957 - 1958 151% 145% 127% 158% 138% 167% 152% 129% 165% 137% 147%
Stg. El Niño 1965 - 1966 91% 76% 79% 76% 76% 81% 77% 112% 124% 124% 86%
Stg. El Niño 1972 - 1973 94% 111% 98% 141% 117% 145% 137% 126% 127% 119% 112%
Stg. El Niño 1987 - 1988 81% 75% 63% 69% 65% 78% 84% 108% 100% 125% 80%
Stg. El Niño 1991 - 1992 69% 73% 63% 84% 74% 102% 81% 141% 130% 176% 83%
Stg. El Niño 2023 - 2024 110% 96% 92% 102% 94% 123% 103% 138% 139% 122% 106%
           
V. Stg. El Niño 1982 - 1983 161% 169% 160% 195% 189% 205% 198% 203% 207% 201% 177%
V. Stg. El Niño 1997 - 1998 150% 164% 129% 180% 159% 212% 190% 193% 209% 181% 166%
V. Stg. El Niño 2015 - 2016 116% 108% 122% 99% 107% 86% 104% 103% 76% 80% 107%
       
ENSO Type Rain Season     N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
Weak La Niña 1954 - 1955 73% 70% 66% 74% 78% 81% 84% 71% 77% 70% 74%
Weak La Niña 1964 - 1965 120% 115% 119% 105% 122% 98% 110% 92% 83% 83% 112%
Weak La Niña 1971 - 1972 99% 71% 80% 53% 67% 50% 56% 61% 54% 62% 75%
Weak La Niña 1974 - 1975 104% 99% 99% 96% 105% 100% 97% 89% 91% 68% 99%
Weak La Niña 1983 - 1984 121% 113% 120% 97% 109% 77% 94% 105% 74% 144% 110%
Weak La Niña 1984 - 1985 81% 73% 80% 82% 76% 73% 85% 137% 88% 156% 83%
Weak La Niña 2000 - 2001 60% 68% 55% 75% 78% 108% 87% 95% 94% 88% 73%
Weak La Niña 2005 - 2006 140% 143% 137% 139% 135% 116% 127% 106% 91% 77% 132%
Weak La Niña 2008 - 2009 78% 82% 82% 79% 87% 67% 75% 79% 70% 90% 80%
Weak La Niña 2016 - 2017 156% 162% 187% 166% 176% 144% 156% 143% 122% 123% 158%
Weak La Niña 2017 - 2018 77% 79% 108% 72% 81% 63% 67% 64% 45% 40% 74%
        106% 127% 158% 155% 169% 183% 183% 159% 178% 115% 138%
                             
Mod. La Niña 1955 - 1956 143% 137% 141% 136% 136% 114% 124% 84% 84% 66% 130%
Mod. La Niña 1970 - 1971 122% 106% 117% 96% 91% 81% 87% 77% 82% 59% 103%
Mod. La Niña 1995 - 1996 123% 119% 126% 124% 114% 101% 105% 72% 76% 35% 112%
Mod. La Niña 2011 - 2012 90% 74% 63% 70% 65% 64% 69% 56% 68% 65% 75%
Mod. La Niña 2020 - 2021 57% 44% 59% 39% 50% 51% 44% 31% 39% 25% 48%
Mod. La Niña 2021 - 2022 75% 77% 99% 82% 72% 68% 64% 63% 69% 52% 73%
                     
Stg. La Niña 1973 - 1974 156% 139% 111% 127% 114% 112% 104% 74% 82% 61% 128%
Stg. La Niña 1975 - 1976 71% 51% 58% 41% 52% 45% 60% 72% 65% 83% 60%
Stg. La Niña 1988 - 1989 92% 89% 96% 69% 74% 57% 75% 68% 63% 66% 83%
Stg. La Niña 1998 - 1999 115% 100% 110% 93% 93% 83% 84% 79% 57% 64% 98%
Stg. La Niña 1999 - 2000 97% 101% 87% 102% 105% 104% 96% 75% 73% 58% 96%
Stg. La Niña 2007 - 2008 86% 73% 74% 77% 74% 87% 77% 86% 93% 87% 80%
Stg. La Niña 2010 - 2011 119% 129% 143% 123% 151% 136% 156% 138% 144% 103% 132%
       
ENSO Type Rain Season     N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA
  1950 - 1951 114% 113% 117% 109% 123% 76% 100% 71% 57% 52% 106%
  1956 - 1957 92% 85% 90% 76% 84% 74% 83% 72% 81% 56% 85%
  1959 - 1960 90% 83% 70% 77% 77% 73% 72% 69% 71% 101% 82%
  1960 - 1961 101% 81% 68% 67% 64% 56% 62% 59% 39% 50% 77%
  1961 - 1962 83% 88% 96% 85% 97% 111% 113% 104% 117% 80% 93%
  1962 - 1963 119% 124% 133% 126% 114% 106% 102% 74% 56% 46% 112%
  1966 - 1967 111% 124% 133% 140% 139% 139% 151% 109% 138% 77% 124%
  1967 - 1968 81% 77% 79% 73% 68% 64% 71% 90% 81% 105% 78%
  1978 - 1979 76% 83% 81% 86% 102% 101% 107% 124% 136% 153% 92%
  1980 - 1981 76% 77% 77% 67% 72% 78% 77% 78% 64% 70% 75%
  1981 - 1982 148% 150% 148% 164% 156% 124% 132% 118% 109% 98% 143%
  1985 - 1986 115% 131% 142% 136% 137% 124% 138% 117% 123% 118% 127%
  1989 - 1990 77% 79% 77% 67% 76% 56% 67% 53% 59% 48% 73%
  1990 - 1991 65% 70% 79% 69% 75% 91% 87% 101% 100% 121% 76%
  1992 - 1993 123% 130% 124% 129% 137% 151% 145% 171% 218% 228% 139%
  1993 - 1994 65% 66% 65% 67% 63% 73% 76% 57% 78% 70% 66%
  1996 - 1997 124% 121% 133% 108% 129% 111% 127% 84% 91% 53% 118%
  2001 - 2002 97% 89% 77% 92% 86% 66% 81% 44% 34% 26% 82%
2003 - 2004 96% 93% 82% 85% 76% 69% 75% 93% 64% 99% 88%
  2012 - 2013 86% 81% 83% 74% 70% 57% 50% 57% 50% 84% 75%
  2013 - 2014 59% 58% 65% 56% 53% 41% 45% 58% 48% 68% 56%
  2019 - 2020 64% 63% 75% 56% 66% 81% 78% 98% 110% 143% 72%
ENSO Type Rain Season     N Coast Sacramento N Lahontan SF Bay S Joaquin C Coast Tulare Lk S Lahontan S Coast Colo River CALIFORNIA

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