ABSTRACT
This review compares the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 90 day forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF) 2010-2011 with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same periods.  Also plotted are the average temperature and precipitation anomaly maps during a "moderate" La Niña.

DATA
The 90-day winter outlooks were downloaded from the NOAA News archives and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).  The average La Niña data is based upon average "moderate" conditions per the Oceanic Niño Index and also plotted from CDC.

ANALYSIS
The CPC temperature forecast for DJF 2010-11 was obviously strongly influenced by expectations of a "average moderate La Niña" with most of the eastern two-thirds of the country being warmer than normal, while the 90-day period ended up distinctly below normal.

Likewise the CPC precipitation forecast for DJF 2010-11 looked much like the average La NIña precipitation anomalies.  The observed anomalies showed a combination of above and normal in the Pacific Northwest while the CPC forecast was for above normal precipitation.  The drier than normal forecast across the extreme southern tier of states verified well, though the wetter than normal area extending southwest from the Great Lakes and into the souther Mississippi Valley did not verify at all.  

TEMPERATURE
NOAA CPC Outlook DJF 2010-2011	Observed DJF 2010-2011 Anomalies	Average Moderate La Niña (DJF)
click to enlarge maps
PRECIPITATION
NOAA CPC Outlook DJF 2010-2011	Observed DJF 2010-2011 Anomalies	Average Moderate La Niña (DJF)
click to enlarge maps

The CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications can be found at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php