ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's NOAA Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) 30-day and 90-day precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of December-February (DJF)
2013-2014 with the actual observed conditons.
ANALYSIS Winter
Precipitation:
The CPC Winter precipitation forecast for DJF
2013-14 did poorly at capturing the well below
normal (i.e., < 75%) for the West Coast and Great Basin and the Plains.
Likewise the well above normal (> 125%) precipitation that occurred over
much of the eastern third of the nation was missed, especially in the
southeast where below normal was forcast and above normal precipitation
occurred! The forecast did do a relatively good job of capturing
above normal precipitation in the northern Rockies and the below normal
precipitation that occurred in Arizona, New Mexico and extreme western
Texas.
Winter Temperature: With the exception of the northern
Rockies, the CPC winter temperature forecast did a very poor job of
depicting the extremely cold temperatures experienced over the east
two-thirds of the country. This was especially true in New
England, Texas and lower Mississippi Valley where the outlook was
actually for above normal temperatures. The above normal
temperatures that occured through the winter for California and the
Great Basin were also missed. Only the above normal temperatures
in Arizona and New Mexico were close to a hit.
Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Analyses:
Forecast and observed conditons are graphically also depicted below.
Winter 2013-2014 Preciptation |
NOAA CPC
90-Day Precipitation Outlook DJF 2013-2014 |
Observed
DJF 2013-2014 Precipitation % Normal |
|
|
Winter 2013-2104 Temperature |
NOAA CPC
90-Day Temperature Outlook DJF 2013-2014 |
Observed
DJF 2013-2014 Temperature Anomalies |
|
|
December 2013
Precipitation |
NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook December 2013 |
Observed
December 2013 Precipitation % Normal |
|
|
December 2013
Temperature |
NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook December 2013 |
Observed
December 2013 Temperature Anomalies |
|
|
January 2014 Precipitation |
NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook January 2014 |
Observed
January 2014 Precipitation % Normal |
|
|
January 2014 Temperature |
NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook January 2014 |
Observed
January 2014 Temperature Anomalies |
|
|
February 2014
Precipitation |
NOAA CPC
Precipitation Outlook February 2014 |
Observed
February 2014 Precipitation % Normal |
|
|
February 2014 Temperature |
NOAA CPC
Temperature Outlook February 2014 |
Observed
February 2014 Temperature Anomalies |
|
|
DATA SOURCES
The 30-day and 90-day outlooks were retreived from the
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) archives and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
High Plains Regional
Climate Center's Climate Summary Maps.
CPC Gridded Seasonal Verifications
can be found at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/seas_veri.grid.php
|