Historic El Nino and La Nina Precipitation Analyses
El Niño Winter*
Precipitation
Anomalies
1981 - 2024

Jan Null, CCM

Updated April 2024


This is a catalog of nationwide "winter" precipitation anomalies for previous El Niño events.  This is a climatological analysis and not a forecasting tool.  Please note that even within a single category the broad range of conditions; some that are decidedly "atypical".

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is used to identify El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific. The ONI is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W). Events are defined as 5 consecutive months at or above the +0.5° anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5° anomaly for cool (La Niña) events.

El NIño thresholds are broken down into Weak (with a 0.5° to 0.9° SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0° to 1.4°), Strong  (1.5° to 1.9°), and Very Strong (≥ 2.0°) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have equaled or exceeded the higher threshold for at least 3 months.
Weak:
2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2018-19
Moderate:
1986-87,1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10
Strong:
1987-88, 1991-92, 2023-24
Very Strong:
1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16
La NIña thresholds are broken down into Weak (with a -0.5° to -0.9° SST anomaly), Moderate (-1.0° to -1.4°), Strong  (-1.5° to -1.9°) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be weak, moderate, strong or very strong it much have equaled or exceeded the higher threshold for at least 3 months.
Weak: 1983-84, 1984-85, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23
Moderate: 1995-96, 2011-12, 2020-21, 2021-22
Strong: 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11
* December through February.

 El Niño Precipitation Anomalies:
Winter (December, January, February)
 
Weak El Niño (ONI = +0.5 to +0.9 °C)
 2004-05  2006-07  2014-15
     
2018-19
     
Moderate El Niño (ONI = +1.0 to + 1.4 °C)
1986-87   1994-95 2002-03
2009-10    
 
Strong El Niño (ONI = +1.5 to + 1.9 °C)
1987-88 1991-92 2023-24 
     
Very Strong El Niño (ONI ≥ 2.0 °C)
1982-83 1997-98 2015-16
     

Graphics courtesy ©2023 PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, https://prism.oregonstate.edu

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