This review subjectively compares last year's
2022 Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of
2021-2022 with the observed temperature and
precipitation anomalies for the same period.
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee
Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
Climate Diagnostics Center
The subjective graphical grading is below.
Overall if a forecast was in the right category (i.e., above normal was
forecast and above normal was observed) it was graded as "good".
Conversely, if it was the wrong category (i.e., above normal was
forecast and below normal was observed then it was graded as "not good".
And if the forecast was off by a single category (i.e, above normal was
predicted and it was normal) or there was a mixture of above and below
in close proximity to one another then I graded it as "mixed".
Of the 40 precipitation regions compared,
16 (40%) regions were rated as "good", 16 (40%) as "not good" and
8 (20%) as "mixed".
Of the 33 temperature regions compared, only 2 (6%) regions rated as
"good", 19 (58%) as "not good" and 12 (36%) as "mixed".
However, it is left to
the individual reader to do their own comparisons and evaluate the
relative usefulness of the forecasts to their particular activity.
Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2021-2022
See the past
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