Old Farmer's Almanac 2012 Precipitation and
Temperature Outlooks in Review


Winter
November 2011-March 2012

and
and
Summer
June-July-August 2012

Jan NullCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
 

ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2011-2012 and the summer period of June-August (JJA) with the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same periods.


DATA SOURCES
The Winter and Summer forecasts are reproduced from the 2012 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
Winter: 
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA) precipitation forecast for NDJFM 2011-12 missed the very dry conditions in California and New England and along the Atlantic Seaboard.  It was also out of phase with the wetter than normal conditions in east Texas and north through much of the MIssissippi Valley.  The OFA did capture the above normal Nov-Mar precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and the dry conditons in the Great Basin and south Florida.  The OFA winter temperature forecast did poorly with the above normal temperatures from the northern Plains and Great Lakes into New England.  It did well with its mild temperature in western Washington.
Summer:
 The OFA summertime precipitation forecast captured the dry weather in the nation's midsection but missed with a wet forecast in New England and the Southeast.  The OFA summer temperature forecast missed the very warm (i.e., drought) conditions for most of the eastern two-thirds of the country.  Likewise it was out of phase along the West Coast where it was normal to below normal near the Pacific.

click graphics to enlarge

Winter
Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2011-2012
Observed NDJFM 2011-2012 Precipitation Anomalies Observed NDJFM 2011-2012 Temperature Anomalies

Summer
Old Farmer's Almanac Summer Forecast JJA 2012
Observed JJA 2012 Precipitation Anomalies Observed JJA 2012 Temperature Anomalies

Also see the review of the NOAA CPC winter and summer temperature and precipitation.

Copyright 2012, Golden Gate Weather Services. 
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