|
ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's
Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of
November-March (NDJFM)
2012-2013 and the summer period of June-August (JJA) 2013 with the observed temperature and
precipitation anomalies for the same periods.
DATA SOURCES
The Winter and Summer
forecasts are reproduced from the 2013 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee
Publishing, Dublin, NH) and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
Climate Diagnostics Center
(CDC).
ANALYSIS
Winter:
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA)
precipitation forecast for NDJFM 2012-13 missed the
very dry conditions over interior in California, the Southwest, Texas
and the Rockies. It was correct along the northern two-thirds of
the California coast, Pacific Northwest and New England. The OFA winter temperature forecast did poorly with
the below normal temperature forecast over Texas and New England being
out of phase with the warmer than normal that occurred. It did
better in the southern Rockies but missed in the northern Rockies.
And the Southeast it was near normal despite a colder than normal
forecast.
Summer: The OFA summertime
precipitation forecast totally out of phase from Texas across the
Southeast and up the Atlantic States through New England. It did capture the dry weather in the
nation's northern midsection but missed the dier than normal conditions
in the Pacific Northwest. The OFA summer temperature forecast were
very poor but being pretty much out of phase ((i.e., dry forecast when
wet occurred and vice-versa) everywhere but over California.
SUMMARY: Generally poor with many more areas
being wrong rather than right and many totally out of phase.
click graphics to enlarge
| Winter |
| Old Farmer's
Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2012-2032 |
 |
| Observed
NDJFM 2012-2013 Precipitation Anomalies |
Observed
NDJFM 2012-2013 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
| Summer |
| Old Farmer's
Almanac Summer Forecast JJA 2013 |
 |
| Observed
JJA 2013 Precipitation Anomalies |
Observed
JJA 2013 Temperature Anomalies |
 |
 |
|
