This review compares last year's
Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of
2013-2014 the observed temperature and
precipitation anomalies for the same periods.
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2014 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee
Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
Climate Diagnostics Center
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA)
precipitation forecast for NDJFM 2013-14 missed the
record dry conditions in California with a wet forecast that extended
north into the also drier than normal Pacific Northwest. The OFA
basically had a wet or snowy forecast for the remainder of the US west
of the Continental Divide which ended up drier than normal over all but
Montana and northern Idaho. The OFA precipitation forecast for
middle third of the country was about half right; that being over the
western half of the Plains and into the east slopes of the Rockies which
were drier than normal, while the eastern Plains were mostly drier than
normal despite and mostly dry forecast. The forecast for the
eastern third of the country was somewhat better with a mostly "wet" or
"snowy" forecast and conditons that were either above of near normal.
Temperature: Overall the OFA temperature forecast
was for generally colder than normal across the country except in the
upper Midwest, most of Texas and a swath across Colorado, Utah and
Nevada. While these colder temperatures generally verified, the
forecast "mild" conditions for the Great lakes Regions and Upper Midwest
were obilterated by a reality of record cold temperatures.
Likewise, the OFA winter temperature forecast for cold over most of
California was totally out of phase with the much warmer than normal
temperatures that actually happened.
Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2013-2014
NDJFM 2013-2014 Precipitation Anomalies
NDJFM 2013-2014 Temperature Anomalies