Review of Old Farmer's Almanac 2014 Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

Winter
November 2013-March 2014

and
Jan NullCM
Golden Gate Weather Services
   

ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2013-2014 the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same periods.


DATA SOURCES
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2014 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
Precipitation: 
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA) precipitation forecast for NDJFM 2013-14 missed the record dry conditions in California with a wet forecast that extended north into the also drier than normal Pacific Northwest.  The OFA basically had a wet or snowy forecast for the remainder of the US west of the Continental Divide which ended up drier than normal over all but Montana and northern Idaho.  The OFA precipitation forecast for middle third of the country was about half right; that being over the western half of the Plains and into the east slopes of the Rockies which were drier than normal, while the eastern Plains were mostly drier than normal despite and mostly dry forecast.  The forecast for the eastern third of the country was somewhat better with a mostly "wet" or "snowy" forecast and conditons that were either above of near normal.
Temperature:  Overall the OFA temperature forecast was for generally colder than normal across the country except in the upper Midwest, most of Texas and a swath across Colorado, Utah and Nevada.  While these colder temperatures generally verified, the forecast "mild" conditions for the Great lakes Regions and Upper Midwest were obilterated by a reality of record cold temperatures.  Likewise, the OFA winter temperature forecast for cold over most of California was totally out of phase with the much warmer than normal temperatures that actually happened.

Winter
Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2013-2014
Observed NDJFM 2013-2014 Precipitation Anomalies Observed NDJFM 2013-2014 Temperature Anomalies

Also see the review of the
NOAA CPC winter temperature and precipitation.


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