Mini-Review of Old Farmer's Almanac
Winter 2016-17
Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

November 2016-March 2017

and
Jan NullCM
Golden Gate Weather Services

ABSTRACT
This review compares last year's 2017 Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of November-March (NDJFM) 2016-2017 the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same periods.


DATA SOURCES
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2017 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and precipitation data were downloaded from the Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC).

ANALYSIS
My subjective graphical grading is below.  Overall if a forecast was in the right category (i.e., above normal was forecast and above normal was observed) I graded it as "good". Conversely, if it was the wrong category (i.e., above normal was forecast and below normal was observed then i graded it as "not good". And if the forecast was off by a single category (i.e, above normal was predicted and it was normal) or there was a mixture of above and below in close proximity to one another then I graded it as "mixed".  

Of the 34 precipitation regions compared, I rated 7 (21%) regions as "good", 15 (44%) as "not good" and 12 (35%) as "mixed". Of the 33 temperature regions compared,  I rated 14 (42%) regions as "good", 8 (24%) as "not good" and 11 (33%) as "mixed".

However, I leave it to the individual reader to do their own comparison and evaluate the relative usefulness of the forecasts.

Winter 2016-17
Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2016-2017

Also see the review of the
NOAA CPC 2016-17 winter temperature and precipitation forecast


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