This review compares last year's
Old Farmer's Almanac seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts for the winter period of
2014-2015 the observed temperature and
precipitation anomalies for the same periods.
The Winter forecasts are reproduced from the 2015 Old Farmer's Almanac (Yankee
Publishing, Dublin, NH) website and the corresponding observed temperature and
precipitation data were downloaded from the
Climate Diagnostics Center
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA)
precipitation forecast for NDJFM 2013-14 captured the dry pattern across
the west but in explicitily had a wet area in northern California and
eastern Washington. Big miss over Texas with dry forecast. Northern
Plains get a hit wtih dry pattern, but most of Midwest snowy forecast
missed. Dry Gulf states as forecast but miss on the Atlantic coast.
Similarly the OFA had a wet/snowy forecast from Virgina north through
Massachusetts which only hit right along the Atlantic.
Temperature: Overall the OFA temperature forecast
was for generally colder than normal across the eastern two-thirds of
the country. This totally missed in the Plains but verified in
most of the east except on the Gulf Coast and Florida. In the
western third of the country the mild temperatures were forecast in all
but the Southwest and extreme northern Rockies. This verified except in
the Southwest and Rockies.
Almanac Winter Forecast NDJFM 2013-2014
NDJFM 2014-2015 Precipitation Anomalies
NDJFM 2014-2015 Temperature Anomalies